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Thursday, November 3, 2011

2011 Breeders Cup Analyst and Predictions

Breeders Cup 2011 is finally here, I thought I would give you my two cents to see if it helps at all!


Race 5- Secret Circle is the real deal and can be singled in pk 4 and pk 6. I think she would have been in JUV Filly if she had more time, she really has no competition!
Jake mo, Seeker, Trinniberg, and Vexor behind.

Race 6- Wide open event so take a price, lightly raced horses, so any runner can have a 10 length improvement from last start. I don't like the Euros in here.

Pure Gossip- Very talented out of a Dixieland Band mare

Dayatthespa- 12-1 with Dominguez.

Somali Lemonade- Closer and Solis fits her style perfect

My Gi Gi- Major Turf breeding especially on the bottom

Stopshoppingmaria- G I placed, first time turf

Stephanie's Kitten- G I winner Johnnie V 12-1

Sweet Cat- length and half behind Somali Lemonade, 10-1

Ann of the Dance- 30-1 first time turf by English Channel

Race 7- Looks like a two horse race

Turbulent Descent - one fast horse who glides across the track, 3 yr facing older

Switch- Game as they come, second (combined one length) to Blind Luck, Zenyatta and Havre de Grace

Tar Heel Mom, Her Smile, Pomeroys Pistol and Tanda underneath

Race 8- Juvenile's again, so improvement hard to predict and 2 yr hard to predict

Miss Netta- Street Sense baby needed a start going long now primed for best

Grace Hall- UNDEFEATED and retains Dominguez

My Miss Aurelia- UNDEFEATED half million Keenland SEPT purchase

Questing- John Gosden a top trainer who can get a price in USA!

Candrea- Too much speed for her to go wire to wire, but if she can stalk, she can be dangerous.

Race 9- Looks like Stacelita is winner on paper, but that's why we run the races

Stacelita- Two impressive performances in last two makes her scary good right now

Narain- UNDEFEATED Darley horse and lightly raced with Frankie Dettori looks like any kind

Announce- Juddmonte horse, nose away from beating Narain, will have a good price too

Cambina- 3 year old can pack a punch with Gomez at 30-1 !!

Aruna- 1st or 2nd in all US starts

Harmonious- Classy horse at 30-1, hard to pass on

Misty for Me- Lightly raced longshot for A O'Brien

Race 10- Ladies Classic (Is Ask the Moon going to run?) Royal Delta VS Plum Pretty

Royal Delta- Grinder is going to take down Ladies Classic this year

Plum Pretty- If Ask the Moon scratches then will Plum Pretty get an easy early lead ?

It's Tricky- Filly with a fiery personality but has tons of talent

Miss Match- 6 yr who ran against boys in last two (Outsider)


Marathon Race 3-Don't forget!!!! one mile and six furlongs

A.U Miner- CLASS of the field.

Cease- Only six career starts, but is bred to run all day.

Meeznah- Breeding screams distance 12-1

Giant Oak- Classy horse but only 1-7 at CD

JUVTURF Race 4- Wide open event (Help Me ?)

Animal Spirits- My top pick with Robby Albarado at a price

Coalport- Second to Animal Spirits in 3rd career start

Fantastic Song- Beat Animal Spirits by a nose in Maiden win

Shkaspeare Shaliyah- Just beat Fantastic Song in GIII Pilgrim

Majestic City- coming out of two second place finishes in GI's

Finale- Pletcher horse looking for 4 in a row

Lucky Chappy- Rosario will come flying late on the outside

State of Play- UNDEFEATED in two starts (ALL theses horse looks same on paper)

Excaper, Wrote and Gung Ho horses with great prices i would add underneath or in pk 3 for a price

Sprint Race5- Speed horse or Closer? really need to envision pace scenario in this one

Giant Ryan- My top pick looking to steal the Money for Money Mags. Speed of the Speed

Jackson Bend- Will be flying late and might just MOW them all down on the far outside!

Amazombie- Might just get perfect trip at a great price for Mike Smith, especially if pace melts down

Force Freeze- Two sharp USA starts, only a nose behind Giant Ryan in major prep race the VOSBURGH

TURF SPRINT Race 6- Wide open, i bet you can trow a blanket over five horses at finish

Caracortado- Will be flying like a speeding bullet down the far outside lane, but will it be too late?

Hoofit- UNDEFEATED in USA, figures in weak race compared to last year.

Broken Dreams- Gomez will have to be find room in the lane, in this 5 furlong dash to wire

DIRT MILE Race 7- To Honor and Serve and Uncle Mo's departure makes Trappe Shot the horse

Trappe Shot- Perfect Distance and set up especially being a one turn mile which is right up his alley.

Shack Daddy- Will love one turn mile and looked sharp as nails in Equisight Video early this week at CD

The Factor- Speedball won't take this field wire to wire unless they're literally walking the first half mile

Wilburn and Tapizar both lightly raced and trained by Steve Amussen. These two have tons of talent and should be heard from in next years BC Cup

TURF Race 8- Europeans always win this race.

Sea Moon- 3 yr with 5 lifetime outs seems to have most upside and i always love the Juddmonte horses on the grass. Sea Moon must be a single on your ticket to get more coverage later.

Midday- Another Juddmonte horse who should have won this same race last year but was stuck down on the fence and couldn't find daylight.

Await the Dawn- Seems to me this horse will be overlooked because he was five lengths behind Midday last time out. Can turn the tables at nice price

St Nicholas Abbey- Euro coming out of Prix de Arch Triomphe at 9/2!

Juvenile Race 9- Creative Cause, Union Rags, and Hansen are the main players. People from the West are all over CC while East coast fans are thrilled and dazzled with Union Rags three performances.

Creative Cause- My favorite horse because of the presence this horse demands on the TV screen, I can only imagine what it's like in person. He looked like he could run forever in his first start going long, that's when the men separate them selves from the boys and i hope he makes it to KY on the 1st Sat in May.

Hansen- Two wins for a combined 25 lengths but how will the grey son of Tapit react to the Acid Test?

Union Rags- Looks to be a single for many people i have talked to! This UNDEFEATED Dixie Union Colt is going to be favored on Saturday.

Otimizer, Prospective, Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Dullahan and Daddy Long legs will be horses in superfecta and 1 of them can surprise top 3.

MILE Race 10- Goldi looking for four in a row, this race has so much on the line that the Committee  moved it to the race before classic for the first time ever.

Goldi- Loves the USA racing and should roll right on by unless traffic is bad which is always the case in Mile

Gio Ponti - Taking another stab at Goldi instead of running in classic, could be his last ho-rah into the sunset

Courageous Cat- P Val will have this horse right there in deep stretch, Million dollar question, is rather CC hangs on for victory or ends up being swallowed late.

Get Stormy- Always right there going to be 20-1

Mr. Commons- 3 yr old with most room to improve, should be in superfecta at 30-1

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC Race 11- Havre de grace is turning into a monster race horse- Team Equisight has been by her side from the time she arrived in KY and she looks to be really enjoying her job. Don't under estimate a sharp horse.

Havre De Grace- She will hit the board , so key wheeling her is the best idea

Uncle Mo- LOVES CD, HAS ONE AMAZING STRIDE. Horses like this don't come often

To Honor and Serve- 3 yr old looking to open up early in the stretch and make someone come and get him

Flatout- Sharp horse, great price and A. Solis a giant killer

Ruler on Ice- Gomez rides and should be right there at finish at 30-1

May the Money be with you All.


  1. nice writeup mags...... agree with quite a bit and others not so much, why they call it gambling i guess.... I actually cashed on Giant Ryan last race (pk4 play) he had it way easy, seriously doubt that happens here, love your 2nd choice jackson bend.... Trappe shot also looked horrendous last time out, might have been an off track or something but he didnt fire.....completely agree with AU Miner and i am one of those Union Rags East Coasters singling him lol.... nice job here, made me look into more plays :) <Aaron Powell

  2. Glad i was able to help you look a bit deeper, Trappe Shot wil bounce back at this distance and Ryan just has such a good price,but you said it best, thats why we call it gambling. Union Rags is a great single but beware of the CC (yes i am a west coast guy, LOL )

    Thanks a Lot AP

    Best of Luck